The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a build of 1.1 million barrels in US oil stocks

Platts Survey of Analysts

Crude oil stocks up 1.1 million barrels
Gasoline stocks up 160,000 barrels
Distillates stocks down 975,000 barrels
Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.1 percentage points to 81.1%

New York, NY - March 1, 2010

This week's American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) petroleum data is expected to show a crude oil inventory build of 1.1 million barrels for the week ending February 26, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.

API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's report will be released at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.

U.S. crude inventories have climbed 10.67 million barrels since mid-January, to 337.56 million barrels the week ending February 19, up from 326.68 million barrels the week ending January 22, according to the EIA, on strong imports and low refinery runs.

Over the same period, crude imports have climbed to 9.08 million barrels per day (b/d) from 7.87 million b/d.

"Crude supplies are expected to show a modest upswing as imports likely held above the 9 million b/d level with the help of some additional offloading of floating cargoes and due to an expected slight drop in runs," independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch said in a report. "We look for gains to again be concentrated largely with the Gulf Coast region."

Crude has exited floating storage as the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude contango* has narrowed. The April/May spread settled at minus 35 cents/barrel (/b) on February 26, in from minus 61 cents/b on February 1.

Analysts polled by Platts are expecting refinery runs to remain low, with a slight 0.1 percentage point decrease to 81.1%, based on last week's EIA data.

Analysts stand mixed on gasoline, with some predicting an inventory rise, and others a slight decline. On average, analysts are looking for a 160,000 barrel increase.

Last week's 895,000 barrel gasoline inventory decline reported by the EIA was largely the result of a spike in demand to 9.06 million b/d. But that spike followed two weeks of dismal readings—the result of winter storms in the mid-Atlantic—and may not be repeated.

Finally, analysts polled by Platts are looking for a 975,000 barrel draw in distillate inventories, in line with seasonal tendencies. U.S. distillate inventories have steadily declined since October, to 152.66 million barrels the week ending February 19 from 171.76 million barrels the week ending October 2, according to the EIA.

While distillate demand has trended higher since the summer months, it remains well-below the five-year average, depressed by a sluggish economy.

Platts Futures and Derivatives Review is published as a supplement to Platts Oilgram Price Report.

*Contango is the industry vernacular for the condition whereby prices for nearby delivery are lower than prices for future-month delivery. # # #

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